U.S. Q3 GDP Estimate Surges to 3.4% on Strong Consumer Spending
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now projects real GDP growth of 3.4% for Q3 2025, up from 3.1% just six days prior. This WOULD mark the fastest expansion since Q3 2023. The revision follows stronger-than-expected retail sales data, with August figures climbing 0.6% month-over-month against forecasts of 0.2%. Core retail sales, excluding volatile categories, rose 0.7%.
Consumer resilience continues to drive growth, with personal consumption expenditures now expected to increase 2.7% in Q3. This strength persists despite inflationary pressures, as August’s CPI registered a 0.4% monthly gain—the sharpest rise since January. Meanwhile, net exports’ contribution to GDP growth has narrowed to just 0.08 percentage points.